Originally
posted by
Magellaan:
How fast is very fast according to you? I think Id consider at least a couple decades for new technologies to be developed/implemented and upscaled as rather fast.
Biofuels, doesn't make a lot of sense to use agricultural land for fuel if you need to feed 9bil+ people. You could use algea maybe but if current technology would be upscaled that would make up only a couple % of transportation fuel at most right now. Still has a long way to go.
Hydrogen fuel, it's not very efficient as is. Then you also need to produce the hydrogen first which makes it even less efficient.
Electric vehicles, we'll be seeing more and more of these of course but it will also take a time before they can be produced at the same rate as 'fossil fuel' cars. And even then it will take time to replace all current cars. Easily takes a couple decades..
It would make sense too to change land use policies and actually walk and bike more and use mass transit.
Also, you need to produce your electricity using something else than fossil fuels. Maybe we'll have nuclear fusion power plants in the futures, but thats still decades away. Renewable energy.. takes a while too. Germany is looking at 20-30% renewable energy in 2020 but that will have taken them 2 decades to get there even though they created very favorable market conditions for it.
Now don't get me wrong, I think a lot is possible and we don't necesarilly have to panic but I really do think 'very fast' still means at least a couple decades with something as huge as this issue.
We likely already can feed 9 billion people, considering the world has over 7 billion, government's regulatory stock and plenty of fatties. Plenty of countries actually pay their farmers to not produce or to produce less than they can. Feeding is a no issue, the real problem is distribution (as in some of the poor can't afford to buy food).
During my life I have seen Brazil change a big part of its fuel source several times. Each round took a couple of years for full conversion. I don't expect it to take more than five years or so, tbh. Free markets do tend to be efficient and, like I said, the technology already is out there. We have vehycles on the streets using eletric, hydrogen and biofuels today.
To say that some or all of them aren't efficient just bring us back to the price issue again.
To say that a lack of energy production will be a problem is correct. But the solution for that is out there too. From nuclear power to alternate energy to coal power or hidro power. We will have to build them. It bets the hell out of watching the end of modern civilization.
And lets keep in mind that in real life oil won't end in the blink of an eye. As its supply dwindles, its price goes up, opening space to other techs.
