0% correct answers so far :-P

Probability is awesome.

Here is a simple but fun puzzle.

You have 3 cards. One is black on both sides, one is red on both sides, one is black on one side and red on the other side.

You randomly draw one card out of a bag and see that it is red on one side. What is the probability that the other side is also red?

sure.
a few different ways to think about this. One would be intuitively there are 4 different balls all with equal probability in each case, so it has to be 1/4th for each ball on each of the 4 drawings.

Another way is using conditional probability, this will give the same results.

On the 1st drawing there are 4 balls in the bowl, so 1/4 chance the ball is yellow.
On the 2nd drawing there are 3 balls in the bowl. There is a 1 - P(1Y) = 1-1/4 = 3/4 chance one of those 3 balls is yellow. Therefore there is a 1/3*3/4 = 1/4 chance the ball is yellow.
On the 3rd drawing there are 2 balls in the bowl. There is a 1 - P(1Y) - P(2Y) + P(1Y)&P(2Y) = 1 - 1/4 - 1/4 + 0 = 1/2 chance one of those 2 balls is yellow. Therefore there is a 1/2*1/2 = 1/4 chance the ball is yellow.

Where P(1Y) is probability 1st ball is yellow. P(2Y) the 2nd ball. Also note that these event are mutually exclusive since the balls aren't replaced it is impossible for the yellow ball to be pulled both first and second, hence P(1Y)&P(2Y) = 0.

probability is 50%

25% on 1st, 25% on 2nd, 25% on 3rd, and 25% on 4th :-)

so probability of 1st or 3rd is 50%

ditkf

3.1415926535

I'm alive!

post

I'm sure it is somewhat common. Guy A and B both are allied on one server. Guy A plays another server and gets guy B to play that server occasionally just to be a landfarm for guy A. Guy B gets a little extra time and decides to actually make a hit on the server where he is a landfarm, obviously he won't be hitting his friend, he'll chose someone else.

Who in their right mind after getting hit 20 times by the same person says let me leave them alone and hit someone else? That doesn't seem at all logical to me. If most people in here so much as get double tapped by someone it is time to destroy that person.

just something fishy about some guy getting hit repeatedly by the same person (20+ times) and then instead of going after someone who attacked them they decide to hit me...

I wasted my retal since they are in DR. Whatever maybe I'll retal the guy who is taking all the land!

bunch of assholes on the team server.

WTF is this?

2015-12-18 20:57:44 PS Night and day (#51) sprockitz (#3) TKOwnd 917A (1285A)
2015-12-18 10:09:30 SS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 50A (51A)
2015-12-18 10:09:24 SS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 66A (68A)
2015-12-18 10:09:15 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 130A (135A)
2015-12-18 10:09:07 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 171A (177A)
2015-12-18 10:08:59 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 223A (231A)
2015-12-18 10:08:49 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 287A (298A)
2015-12-17 09:32:30 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 81A (84A)
2015-12-17 09:29:05 SS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 72A (74A)
2015-12-17 09:28:55 SS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 94A (97A)
2015-12-17 09:28:47 SS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 120A (125A)
2015-12-17 09:28:39 SS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 152A (160A)
2015-12-17 09:28:30 SS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 189A (203A)
2015-12-16 09:11:32 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 73A (75A)
2015-12-16 09:11:19 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 96A (100A)
2015-12-16 09:11:16 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 124A (132A)
2015-12-16 09:11:06 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 160A (173A)
2015-12-16 09:11:02 PS Adolf Eichmann (#63) VILLAINS Night and day (#51) 201A (224A)

I was at 360 (360) when it went down and still in protection! Glad I took this set off :-)

farmer is tough on the short sets (tourney/express) because not much stocking is done...and for the size of express only about 5 farmers are needed...and the bots take care of most of that.

Was a fun set! Well done currydubs, I'm happy with my 42 million even if it was only good enough for 2nd. :-)
It's been almost a year since 2 players reached 40 million and I didn't bother to find when the last time 3 people achieved it.

hehe, this was last set...i wasn't around for the weekend so knew I couldn't compete for a top 10 so just had some fun killing bots. I wonder if it had much if any impact on the top players looking for farming. It would've been more effective just doing BR/AB/GS 10-15 times twice a day against each bot if my goal was to make farming bots really useless. And this would be fairly easy to do since it is very rare for bots to have all 3 types of defense.

I've got the popcorn, just waiting for Crash landing to retal VARIS!

whew, got it!! 8,002,358,624 TNW. That was cutting it close. :-) Now to hope nobody knocks me out of the top 100 in the final 5 minutes as I'm 97, 98, and 99.

I'm at 7.94 billion right now, hoping to get to 8 billion but it is going to be very close...somewhere between 7.99 and 8.01 will be my final nw

Maybe, but it won't be from me. With Christmas to New Years vacation I'll miss 10 days of prime bot grabbing/land growing time so I won't have the production needed to match what I did this set.

the bots have learned to post!

Looks like it's the best networth since a land exploit allowed llaar to get 90 million acres and 6 billion NW back in 2010. :-)

lol, no bots are oilers so i doubt any good player who actually bothered to spy you before looking would think that :-). Though there are plenty of humans who willingly double tap (or more) players they know are humans!

It looks like the decay rate is ~1.5% per turn.

so that was you that killed me?

congrats weedy and vic on regaining your ANW and first place titles.

marshal i thought you were already playing team?

4 dead and counting :-P

I'm buying at 37 as well. Any more and I'd rather just have corruption :-)

blacks kill more blacks than all other races combined kill anyone.

well given there are 5x as many white people, that is what the statistic should be if things are 'random'. I think the two biggest points to take from the stats are that things are fairly equal in terms of cross-race murders and overall they are much less common than same race murders. So given those two facts I don't see why it is made into such a big issue. All murders are crimes of hate (even if not labeled as hate crimes) and I would guess almost none of them occurred just because of the victim's race.

just to make my point clear in case you didn't get it.

Using the suspect pool to determine your rate. 11.1 black people per million kill a white person, while 2.2 white people per million kill a black person.

Wow, what a b.s. rate calculation you are using there to support a false narrative. Why are you dividing by the victim pool and not the suspect pool. The most accurate is the pure numbers as they takes both ratios into account. Based on your numbers that makes things fairly even (530 versus 500), though I've seen other statistics that say it is about 2 to 1 (black killing white is twice as common as white killing black).

yeah, using cash for the last ~400 turns is best...with occasional turns used on the market.

lee, with CI in express there is no need to stock and de-stock food, but you can buy up a few million to store on the market for later use. Lately though prices have been low enough all set it is hardly necessary. The most important things for CI are playing frequently...ideally only use 30-60 turns at a time and then sell military on market. This prevents your costs from getting too high, and you can use the money from the sales for your next set of turns. Of tech's, Indy Tech is the most important, getting it to 140-150% is key, exactly where in that range depends on the current Indy tech cost. Some weapon and mil strat tech for when you start making hits is nice to get the most out of your units and land grabs. A little Business, Residential, and Military are nice as well...though these can often wait until later especially if tech prices are high. Feel free to look at my tech setups from end of this last set. My units aren't really a good representation of what I actually had during the game since I ran the last 380 turns only producing jets since they are the cheapest to maintain.

Thanks Relax. I was waiting for you to jump at the end there. With your land thought you might be the person to pass me. Sorry you missed the jump.

Thanks guys. Would have been nice to get ~48 million to really boost my top 3, but getting triple tapped even when I had 25 million turrets ruled that out :-). Sadly I won't be able to go for a 3-peat as I'll be enjoying a long holiday weekend.

Speaking of those stats, seems they think my country was only worth 21M networth on the stats page. I think it's my value if you discount units I had on the market, so maybe it will fix itself at some point...if not, note to self use my last 3 turns to recall those goods.

and you are #8?

Perhaps.

To me looks like the only person #54 hit without provocation that could remotely be considered a topfeed was #8. Everythng else looks like retals and bots. And given #8 was searching in-game for who I believe is #54 maybe it was provoked.

I hate to think how sad and messed up this person is in real life that they could get satisfaction out of being a mother fluffing douche on an online game.

They didn't directly create it, but they did support the rebels fighting against Assad from which Isis emerged.

Perhaps I should destock now at 55, would probably make up for the lost earnings over the next week.

Have any of those actually improved? I mean I guess the US got Osama, but also helped create Isis...so not really a net win.

Lost a defense ally, private message me if interested

I'm casher this set and have a pretty good stash, but if bushel prices stay in the 55 range, I won't have to worry about winning!

last set I believe I finished around 340 million, which was enough to grab first.

When I op'ed temple he had 120% weapons tech and 9 million turrets. And I don't think much changed between the two retal attempts.