Nov 16th 2010, 0:03:19
round 3 top ten stats:
casher: 5
farmer: 2
techer: 2
indy: 1
unknown: 0
all-X: 6
round 2 top ten stats:
casher: 4
farmer: 0
techer: 2
indy: 2
unknown: 2
all-X: 5
round 1 top ten stats:
casher: 4
farmer: 1
techer: 3
indy: 1
unknown: 1
all-X: 6
round 0 top ten stats:
casher: 1
farmer: 3
techer: 5
indy: 1
unknown: 0
all-X: 3
round -1 top ten stats:
casher: 3
farmer: 2
techer: 3
indy: 1
unknown: 1
all-X: 4
round -2 top ten stats:
casher: 5
farmer: 2
techer: 2
indy: 0
unknown: 1
all-X: 4
round -3 top ten stats:
casher: 2
farmer: 3
techer: 1
indy: 2
unknown: 2
all-X: 5
round -4 top ten stats:
casher: 5
farmer: 2
techer: 1
indy: 1
unknown: 1
all-X: 6
It is clear to me that it's possible to finish top ten with most strats in any given round. This isn't a very satisfying definition of balance, but it's functional. We'd expect indies and techers to benefit from the change in turns from 450(300) to 360(360) and to benefit somewhat from the change in public market maximum sell size. Techers should benefit from the increase in public market tech floor. Farmers and cashers should also benefit somewhat from the changes in sell size, since increases in supply will depress prices. We can look at average prices and total volume for turrets, bushels, oil, and bus tech to get a very rough idea of how strats are fairing and the difference from set to set.
turrets
round volume average
-4 69995151 159.0722
-3 110985811 161.5303
-2 138471664 144.0131
-1 104137532 155.648
0 110518451 160.3493
1 164894385 148.5037
2 171942854 155.5173
3 238571963 143.6979
food
round volume average
-4 480414201 40.8094
-3 451422581 42.5564
-2 508749087 43.9342
-1 530639577 38.6349
0 794724370 39.4175
1 663097968 43.5869
2 722100815 42.7506
3 672646788 40.835
oil
round volume average
-4 16888713 101.7523
-3 18600737 188.1423
-2 16433985 179.4773
-1 19729761 90.5741
0 16028452 142.7263
1 17545806 189.0359
2 27328002 103.421
3 19298437 174.4641
bus tech
round volume average
-4 2645394 2218.7824
-3 2225311 2741.6441
-2 2561529 2872.4496
-1 1521366 3045.6838
0 3608269 1987.7155
1 3671426 2415.0767
2 3973413 2353.1957
3 5138060 1806.9289
As expected, we generally see increased volumes and lower average prices. The main purpose of the public market changes was to make strategies that require a lot of public market selling (techer and indy) easier to play. I wanted to make these strategies accessible to more players. Did allowing players to customize market times, increasing the max sell size, and increasing the public tech autobuy price meet these goals? Does anyone have any suggestions to further make express more accessible?
I've seen talk that fascist farmer cannot compete in express. This is factually incorrect. In round 0 a player won with an all-X fascist farmer. You can see the market conditions above: military was expensive, bushels were cheap, and tech was cheap. This player had a tech leech, but still would have finished between #1 - #3 without it.
Oil is very volatile, which is what we want it to be. Adding oil to the private market both helps and hurts oilers. We're essentially putting a weak price floor and ceiling on oil. A player could make the argument that adding this ceiling removes an oiler's biggest strength: a big payday from somehow managing to get oil up for sale for $500 or more. However, even if an oiler did manage to get his $500 barrels to appear on the market, how likely is their sale? Would the high price prohibit countries from making grabs? Would players just wait for lower prices? I haven't checked every single set, but I've never seen an oiler finish in the top ten in express, before or after the changes.
Oil on the PM isn't really preventing oilers from finishing in the top ten. It is simply the nature of the server. Take a server like alliance, with relatively few oilers and massive wars. Even with all of the massive wars, you typically don't see oil go over $200. Many players believe that oiler cannot compete (the truth is that oiler is barely competitive in alliance). Without having huge alliance wars in express, you'll see a weekly demand of around 20M. A 3k oiler produces 18.9M barrels over the full reset: 3000 * 1.75 * 2 * 1800 = 18900000
Oiler has, for better or worse, never been a competitive strategy on non-alliance servers. I'm thinking about raising prices on the private market to help it out a little more, but it will likely not be able to compete with the big four. I also disagree with removing oil completely in express: if some players want to try oiler, why not let them?
As of right now, the dominant destocking strategies (in my opinion) are theo 0 MB or full set CI. Prices and supply are essentially guaranteed, the destocking schemes fit very neatly into 360 turn days, and you can gain most of your NW in the last four minutes, avoiding last minute suiciders.
The new GDI rules have the perhaps unfortunate effect of making theo even stronger: lower SDI does not hurt if players can no longer randomly shoot missiles at you. However, theocracy has always been an extremely strong destocking government. Because of the actions of a few, I don't think that the server can ever go back to an environment where players are free to attack however they like, so we're stuck with this. Still, just because countries often finish theocracy does that mean that theocracy is too strong. As you can see above, there is a healthy spread of farmers, cashers, indies, and techers occupying the top ten slots.
The second big change we made was GDI. Here are attacking statistics for the past eight rounds:
round SS and PS special attacks
-4 941 2538
-3 865 2757
-2 695 4068
-1 685 2450
0 1016 2132
1 919 2386
2 851 1445
3 1517 2297
A few concerns about the allowed harmful spy ops have been raised. The first relates to using GDI status to catch offenders that haven't failed an op. However, the alternative is to allow countries to do as many spy ops as they wish, as long as they don't fail more than two, without fear of harsh retribution. It would be extremely frustrating to see 19 successful ops on your country along with one fail and not be able to retal as you see fit. Using GDI to catch these countries is an unfortunate side effect but it will have to stand for now.
It has also been suggested that players should not be able to steal food, oil, tech, or cash from countries in GDI. I disagree with this suggestion. Removing the threat of random special attacks really doesn't have too large of an effect. For the most part, players can simply skip buying small amounts of troops and tanks. However, players still need make a choice about their spy defense. Removing spy ops would mean that all-X countries could just buy turrets and not worry about anything else. That removes too much from the game.
It's difficult to make an argument that spy ops are not a legitimate means of gaining resources. If a player has lots of turrets but low spies, why shouldn't countries try to do harmful ops? Surely if the situation was reversed: high spies and low turrets, the player would be grabbed and instructed to buy more turrets if he complained about it. If you don't want harmful spy ops done against your country, you have two options: protect your stockpile on the market or get good spy defense.
On the subject of suiciding: I was wondering how long it would take us to get here, but players are apparently suiciding now using DH SSes and PSes in the final few minutes. This type of suicide is extremely difficult to defend against: a properly run suicider can take out ~39% of the defender's NW when the defender has four times the NW of the attacker. Think about that for a moment. If anyone has any elegant solutions to this problem, I'd be glad to hear them.
On the subject of bottomfeeding and DR: currently DR is one of the few protections that lower NW countries have. If you decrease DR, then countries on the bottom will be grabbed more often and for more acres. One option would be to raise the humanitarians limit. As it stands, the grabbers that finish in the top ten tend to not do many hits: the most I remember seeing was 20 or so (there may be exceptions). The countries that do massive farming either get suicided on or don't finish well. Even despite these disincentives, some players will continue to farm.
Finally, looking at server activity, here is a list of alive countries out of protection at the end of the set by round:
round number
-4 84
-3 77
-2 79
-1 78
0 93
1 85
2 100
3 107
The growth looks promising. The more active players we have, the better the market functions. There are also more opportunities for diplomacy and attacking. If you enjoy playing express and wish to help it grow, you can do any or all of the following:
Recruit someone to the game and teach them to play express. Admittedly you are holding their feet to the fire, but they will be able to see the effects of what they do very quickly and be able to try out all of the major strategies in just a month.
If that's too much to ask, talk to people who already play the game who quit express a while back. If they quit because it was too time consuming, point to the public market changes. All-X theo casher is also always very quick to play as well. If they quit because of suiciding, point to the new GDI protections. If you feel like the