Originally
posted by
Tmac:
I think it shows we can only accurately predict our own finishes even though we like to guess at others potential.
Honestly, I disagree with that conclusion based on my prediction and the outcome:
Originally
posted by
Gerdler:
1. Parace
2. Pufluff - BIG, but got his last acres too late perhaps?
3. beavis - C/I NW/A's over the last few years have rarely topped out above 2000 NW/A, If this is the set it happens he may challenge the cashers.
4. Beepoo - Best income by far right now, possibly grabbed too late, how long will market favor him?
5. Anarcho/Beer from hell/delphinius - those 3 I cant separate, Only the market and their respective mistakes can.
Dorsai did a better job of the endgame to get 5th I think, either way it was close. You are correct I couldn't have easily known you were getting ops(+felt threats of missiles/ABs) on you or how low techs you had when you stopped grabbing.
However, because the concievable range of techs that a good player (who is not pressured by ops and missile/AB threats) can have in the end are not that large that it would make a difference normally. Maybe I could have seen those threats on the news if I took more time with my prediction, and in such a case its just my failiure to do the legwork. Or perhaps this was unknowable without an op, making you the outlier that no one could predict. Either way mostly my prediction is what happened, showing that it indeed is quite possible, based on old scores, market prices, govt/strat and acreages, approximate a country's potential decently well.