January/February 2013 Talk - Earth Empires Forum

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:05:24

Originally posted by AndrewMose:

540 is too high for turns in my opinion. You will start spending cash before the set end.

Yes, depends how much your private market can supply over how much time and on the public market prices etc etc. But even if you knock off 120 turns, .42 > .326 as well, so it's definitely better to buy food than eat corruption even at the current price. *eyes food market anxiously in hopes that prices go up*

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

Magellaan

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:07:42

Seems right to me blid.

I guess I would try to figure out what the other top countries are doing, if they went for resource decay bonus or not and how much they're stocking, when you think they will destock (maybe you can offload your bushels on public when prices are decent before the other cashers and then eat corruption for far fewer days) etc.

It seems to me you're always making a bet on what will happen with the market and formulas can help you understand better how things work and what to do in certain situations but its not the end all of things.

Not MD, fake Magellaan.

Xinhuan

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:10:49

lol Blid, your math isn't working out. :P

The decision whether to stock food changes on a daily basis, and I'm not about to reveal this math.

Also, you can't multiply 0.001 x 540 like that.

Xinhuan

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:12:42

I'll only just say that if there are 540 turns left, it isn't worth stocking any food above $41.

Magellaan

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:14:29

ehm the 0.001*540, I guess I don't really get that either. It's a very different story whether you have $4bil of cash than $10bil of cash for example ($2mil per turns lost vs 8mil).

Not MD, fake Magellaan.

oldman

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:14:49

Disclaimer - don't listen to what we're saying here. Everyone has a personal agenda.

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:15:04

Originally posted by Xinhuan:

I'll only just say that if there are 540 turns left, it isn't worth stocking any food above $41.

I guess I disagree, because even if you ignore my formula and just look at this:

Originally posted by blid:

it's easy to do spot checks and to see which is more efficient at a given point. For example, say you have $4b on hand, you are losing .1%, or $2m/turn, on that excess $2b. There's roughly 540 turns remaining. 2m * 540 = $1,080,000,000 corruption costs. Spending that excess $2b on $49 food (current price) buys you 38,505,968 bushels, which can be resold at a minimum of $35 on the private market for $1,347,708,895, or a cost of $652,291,105... so stocking is actually already *far* better than eating corruption, even at the current price, in this scenario.

Stocking food is superior, and I don't see where there's room for a mistake there.

Edited By: blid on Feb 22nd 2013, 17:18:58
See Original Post

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

Magellaan

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:16:13

Originally posted by oldman:

Disclaimer - don't listen to what we're saying here. Everyone has a personal agenda.

lol, someone needs to find out which country is Xin's and do a market spy :P

Not MD, fake Magellaan.

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:19:39

Originally posted by Magellaan:

ehm the 0.001*540, I guess I don't really get that either. It's a very different story whether you have $4bil of cash than $10bil of cash for example ($2mil per turns lost vs 8mil).

That part I'm willing to accept could be wrong but the idea is that's the cost for each individual dollar over $2b. That dollar is being corrupted by * .001 for each turn you take for the rest of the round.

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

Xinhuan

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:23:43

I don't intend to argue against blid's math, but he didn't take into account some stuff. :P

You guys can go ahead and stock food. :)

Magellaan

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:44:47

I might argue against his math, or just try to figure it all out numbers wise just as an interesting brain teaser.
I just play by feel and barely do any math but that doesn't bring me stellar finishes so it's good to at least understand the math behind it.

Not MD, fake Magellaan.

AndrewMose

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:48:02

For each dollar over 2b you can stock it as cash, tech, food or military units. Unfortunately each one has a negative ROI at this point, so your choice should be the least worst.

the corruption of 1 dollar over n turns is non-linear.

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 17:57:01

Originally posted by AndrewMose:

the corruption of 1 dollar over n turns is non-linear.

Good call. so you can't say $1 * .001 * 540 because after 70 turns that dollar is only 50 cents. Still though, $41 sounds way too low...

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

AndrewMose

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:16:31

Originally posted by blid:

Originally posted by AndrewMose:

the corruption of 1 dollar over n turns is non-linear.

Good call. so you can't say $1 * .001 * 540 because after 70 turns that dollar is only 50 cents. Still though, $41 sounds way too low...

you may want to check your math, it is way more than 50 cents.

I would stock food at 41 though. But a lot depends on your opinion of where food will be tomorrow or the next day. So I cant say Xin was right or wrong.

BobbyATA

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:25:12

The math here for corruption would be 1 * .999^540= .58

So one dollar stocked now would be 58 cents end of set, assuming 2 billion dollars are already stocked.

Buying a bushel for 42 and I get 1 dollar stocked becomes roughly 74 cents. Even at current price of 49 I get 1 dollar stocked becomes roughly 63 cents. Edit(These numbers are even better, I forgot you can sell bushels on PM now)

I'm not sure what blid (and now I) are missing. But Xin is a smart guy so I will think on it.

Edited By: BobbyATA on Feb 22nd 2013, 18:29:57
See Original Post

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:25:41

Yep, I just PM'd that same formula to Xinhuan, and told him to start buying bushels. Since you already posted it here I'll just post my PM publicly.

.001 * turns remaining = money lost per dollar is wrong because it is linear. Should be:
1 - (.999)^(turns remaining)

so:
1 - .999^540 vs. (49 * 1.06 - 35) / (49 * 1.06)
.417 > .326.

so:
start stocking food.

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

BobbyATA

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:27:03

Originally posted by oldman:

Disclaimer - don't listen to what we're saying here. Everyone has a personal agenda.

looking back at old threads you have been quite guilty of this in the past:P

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:29:23

Even if you change the 540 to 400
1-.999^400 = .329
.329 > .326
start buying bushels!

Since even at $49 * 1.06 = $51.94 it seems like it's worth it, I wonder what on earth we could be missing that would make it only worth it at $41 * 1.06 = $43.46... That's a pretty big gap.

edit: not to mention if the casher has turns stocked, 540 is more accurate than 400.

Edited By: blid on Feb 22nd 2013, 18:31:44
See Original Post

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

AndrewMose

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:30:07

Originally posted by BobbyATA:

Originally posted by oldman:

Disclaimer - don't listen to what we're saying here. Everyone has a personal agenda.

looking back at old threads you have been quite guilty of this in the past:P

:) I took some heat last set selling bushels too early for oldman's liking :)

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:30:49

And yet that's why you finished as highly as you did, because you were the first techer out.

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

crest23

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:36:08

@blid, don't you mean

(1 - .001)^turnsremaining?

The Nigerian Nightmare.

AndrewMose

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:36:24

to be fair it was "how" I did it that was criticized. I don't know if there is conclusive proof one way or another that dumping in sets that are "digestible" by the server is better than dumping all at once.

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:37:44

It's about whether you tip off everyone else to dump their food too. Dumping 200m bushels at once is a tip off, for sure. But I guess even if you sell in installments, IF you start jumping, that will tip off the other techers too and cause them to dump as well. You could still benefit by dumping slyly and not jumping if it means you can sell all 200m bushels when otherwise you may be undercut before they all sell.

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:40:18

Originally posted by crest23:

@blid, don't you mean

(1 - .001)^turnsremaining?

Well I said (.999)^turns and (1 - .001) is .999? The "1-" I have out in front just changes whether you're looking at how much of the $1 is left, or how much of the $1 got lost.

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

crest23

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Feb 22nd 2013, 18:43:26

Side note, a couple big techers have started their jump.

If the cashers start stocking food, the increase demand will cause prices to rise past the current $49 (and decreasing). So don't stock? Be the first to start stocking? So many variables to consider.

The Nigerian Nightmare.

blid

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Feb 22nd 2013, 19:30:35

Someone is getting a little bit desperate O_O

3.7 mins ago
You purchased 43,993,394 Bushels at $40 for $1,759,735,760 via standing order.
No more Bushels remain in your order.

Xin! Xin you can start stocking now! 118m more bushels where that came from!

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

oldman

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Feb 23rd 2013, 4:25:24

$37 food? Really? This doesn't make any sense anymore. There are 9 more days to the end, come on. Buying for $70 and selling for $37 makes no business sense at all.

blid

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Feb 23rd 2013, 4:26:14

Dangit oldman you just made me log in and mess up my bonus timing hunting for $37 food. Nothing there. Was it a lot?

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

h2orich

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Feb 23rd 2013, 4:29:17

Maybe he looked at eestats primary last 6 hours and saw lowest food sold was $37.

OneMansArmy

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Feb 23rd 2013, 4:33:02

THey are shooting themselves in the foot just to sell off first now.. haha!

Other than Earth Empires I also play Battlefield games:
http://www.youtube.com/user/UneManArmy/featured

blid

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Feb 23rd 2013, 4:35:21

Yeah! Idiots! I'm super glad I held onto my 400m bushels! I don't regret at all not getting out for good when prices were high!

Originally posted by Mr. Titanium:

Watch your mouth boy, I have never been accused of cheating on any server nor deleted before you just did right there.

herbs12

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Feb 23rd 2013, 17:24:51

This crash in the food market is awsome. I have even picked up 37$ bushels hours ago. This helps alot with destocking as a commie at this stage. Instead of eating 55$ bushels at 100k a turn right now it's 37$ bushels.

Serpentor

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Feb 23rd 2013, 17:30:28

come on $32 food!!!

The EEVIL Empire

BobbyATA

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Feb 23rd 2013, 18:54:45

1. AustAgder
2. Quarantine
3. TJC
4. Awesome 2013
5. EEVIL WAR MACHINE

Only 2 cashers top 10.

Xinhuan

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Feb 23rd 2013, 19:34:21

1. Awesome 2013
2. Quarantine
3. AustAgder
4. Keep Calm And Press Cash
5. Vengeful Spirit

5 cashers in top 10.

crest23

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Feb 23rd 2013, 19:34:56

1. Awesome 2013
2. Quarantine
3. AustAgder
4. Vengeful Spirit
5. Keep Calm And Press Cash

1 tyr, 2 dicts, 1 Demo, 4 reps, 2 CIs in the top 10.

Edited By: crest23 on Feb 23rd 2013, 19:38:12
See Original Post

The Nigerian Nightmare.

crest23

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Feb 23rd 2013, 19:35:54

Haha! Xin, you beat me to it by a few seconds, lol.

The Nigerian Nightmare.

Rob

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Feb 23rd 2013, 20:05:59

Almost identical predictions too!

1. Awesome 2013
2. AustAgder (just cant see such a fat farmer not finishing higher than a non-farmer)
3. Quarantine

Xinhuan

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Feb 23rd 2013, 20:13:43

Because Rob, a 75k indy outproduces a 90k farmer (at $130 jets and $35 food), so being fat doesn't really mean as much.

BobbyATA

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Feb 23rd 2013, 20:17:20

is 94842 acres 90k now Xin lol? And the farmer produces more according to my calcs with the number of days left.

Xinhuan

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Feb 23rd 2013, 20:20:20

The 75k indy got his techs up earlier, Bobby. The indy also went expenses.

Just calculate one turn's of production and you'll see, military prices are only going to go up too. It's also likely the 94k farmer doesn't have all 94k as farms, maybe only 90k are farms. Also, the farmer went -building cost, so he has a lot higher upkeep.

The farmer is forced to sell at $35 to PM, you can't use current food prices.

Edited By: Xinhuan on Feb 23rd 2013, 20:23:04
See Original Post

Magellaan

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Feb 23rd 2013, 20:23:35

Unless he used resource decay bonus?

Oh never mind :P Just saw your edit

Not MD, fake Magellaan.

BobbyATA

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Feb 23rd 2013, 20:31:26

I was talking about the production of the farmer today versus the indy today so why does getting techs up early matter? Anyways, no I wasn't calculating expenses but given the indy is 11M more NW on 20k less acres even with the expenses bonus it's quite likely they have similar expenses.

Back to production I was assuming the farmer stocked food and bought military at the end and the indy stocked military. So why do military prices matter outside of prices on the last day.

BTW why is it likely the farmer isn't all farms?

Xinhuan

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Feb 23rd 2013, 21:09:12

Spy production... You need it for grabbing. Converting indies would take an extra day or two and cost a lot at 90k, and isn't usually worth it at huge acreage without -building bonus.

Also, a good indy would be playing delayed (for food price to fall, and military prices to go up), while a farmer would be playing non-delayed (before food price goes down more), so its likely the indy has 1-2 days more turns stored than the farmer.

The Cloaked

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Feb 23rd 2013, 21:36:07

I think everyone is overestimating 210's finish.

crest23

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Feb 23rd 2013, 21:46:25

I think I am overestimating 210s finish, cos I don't think he went building bonus as I doubt he foresaw getting to 95k acres i.e. food going to the $70s.

The Nigerian Nightmare.

BobbyATA

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Feb 23rd 2013, 21:55:57

But as we said Xin, 210 has the building bonus so it is worth it to convert the indies...

Xinhuan

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Feb 23rd 2013, 21:59:16

That wasn't the point I was making. I was making multiple reasons as to why I think #210 would finish only 3rd or even 4th place, and having an equal or lower production was just one of them.